Mattie Toma, University of Warwick

Numbers Tell, Words Sell

Abstract

When communicating numeric estimates with policymakers, journalists, or the general public, experts must choose between using numbers or natural language. We run two experiments to study whether experts strategically use language to communicate numeric estimates in order to persuade receivers.

In Study 1, senders communicate probabilities of abstract events to receivers on Prolific, and in Study 2 academic researchers communicate the effect sizes in research papers to government policymakers. When experts face incentives to directionally persuade instead of incentives to accurately inform receivers, they are 25-29 percentage points more likely to communicate using language rather than numbers.

Experts with incentives to persuade are more likely to slant language messages than numeric messages in the direction of their incentives, and this effect is driven by those who prefer to use language. Our findings suggest that experts are strategically leveraging the imprecision of language to excuse themselves for slanting more. Receivers are persuaded by experts with directional incentives, particularly when language is used.

Mattie Toma ia an Associate Professor in the Behavioural Science Group at the University of Warwick.

She is also a Senior Research Affiliate at the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford, an Academic Affiliate at the Office of Evaluation Sciences in the U.S. government, and an Invited Researcher at J-PAL. Mattie Toma received my PhD from Harvard University in 2022.

Her research uses tools from behavioral and experimental economics to address policy-relevant questions. In particular, her current work focuses on improving policymaker decision-making and identifying effective global health interventions.

You can read more about Mattie Toma here

CEBI contact: Florian Schneider