Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen

Ph.d.-forsvar: Peter Kjær Kruse-Andersen: "R&D-Based Economic Growth, Directed Technical Change, and Environmental Policy"

The thesis consists of three self-contained chapters, and each of them   builds on R&D-based endogenous growth models.

Chapter 1 examines U.S. productivity growth through the lens of   R&D-based models. The predictions of different model varieties can vary   substantially, and the main objective of Chapter 1 is therefore to test   different model varieties. The analysis is based on a general R&D-based   model framework which implies a cointegrating relationship. This relationship   is estimated on U.S. data. The obtained results provide evidence in favor of   the semi-endogenous variety and against the widely used fully endogenous   variety. Forecasts based on the empirical estimates indicate that U.S.   productivity growth will continue at a historically slow pace.

Chapter 2 investigates how environmental policy affects long-run   economic growth, when environmental policy also affects the direction of   technical change. The analysis is based on an R&D-based model featuring   endogenous technological development of both production and pollution   abatement technologies. The analysis shows that a tighter environmental   policy unambiguously reduces long-run economic growth. However, simulations   based on U.S. data indicate that even large environmental policy reforms have   small long-run economic growth effects.

Chapter 3 investigates how to achieve a given   climate goal - for instance, the two-degree temperature limit from the Paris   Agreement 2015 - in an R&D-based model featuring both directed technical   change and population growth. The latter aspect is neglected in previous   studies. This seems problematic, as the UN Population Division expects the   global population to grow by nearly 50 percent from 2017 to 2100. Both   analytical and numerical results indicate that population growth, through its   effect on aggregate polluting production, is a major burden on the environment.   The analysis shows that research subsidies are typically insufficient to   ensure a given climate goal. Instead, the analysis highlights the   effectiveness of pollution taxes and population control policies.